FCST: Memorial Wknd

Now, this is SIX days away at this point, so it is far from set in stone, but something to keep an eye on for Memorial Day.

It looks like a strong low pressure system may develop in or near MN and track along what is appearing now to be a cold front. This could mean some fireworks of the severe kind on the holiday. If you have a low, a cold front, and dew points in the upper 60's to 70 degrees, you will have the key ingredients for severe wx (moisture, instability, lift & shear--but we'll explore wind shear as we get closer).



Be prepared if traveling or outdoors on Monday.

Sunday has been added into the mix for severe wx chances also. Here is the 4-8 day outlook for the SPC. I expect D4 (Saturday) and D5 (Sunday) to be shifted towards the west.

Monday's threat has really diminished. Action on Monday should be well south, into IA and MO.
Saturday will have some action in western MN, but Isanti Co should be in the clear until early Sunday morning. The greatest threat on Saturday should be large hail. The best chances of severe weather on Saturday will be in northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota.
Then on Sunday we do have a chance of thunderstorms. Temps near 80, and dewpoints in the upper 60's will provide the moisture. The moderate instability and a cold front gives parts of MN the chance for supercells and tornadoes.

Saturday's Outlook from the SPC


Sunday's Outlook from the SPC

Still watching southeast MN and eastern IA for Sunday afternoon. But there are signs that severe weather may initiate west of the Twin Cities also.

i have fingers and toes crossed. we were supost to go storm chasing last week for our vacation , but alass no severe weather. we got back yesterday and look tornadoes in ok today!!!! i always miss the fun!